Waning Speculative Enthusiasm Spotted in Bitcoin Futures Markets by Glassnode Analysts
In the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, the futures markets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have been experiencing significant growth, driven by increased institutional participation and regulatory developments.
As of August 2025, open interest in all three cryptocurrencies has seen a substantial rise. For instance, Solana futures on the CME witnessed a dramatic surge in July, with trading volume increasing 252% to $8.1 billion and average monthly open interest rising 203%, from $132.3 million in June to $400.9 million in July. This surge suggests a strong institutional interest in Solana derivatives, possibly fueled by expectations of regulatory approval such as a potential U.S. SEC decision on a Solana spot ETF.
Ethereum futures also exhibited strong growth, with volume up 82% in July to $118.1 billion, and CME open interest hitting a record $7.85 billion. This growth was supported by a 52% price surge and inflows from institutional ETFs.
Bitcoin futures remain the largest in volume by far, with July volumes up 23% to $275.3 billion. Although growth there is more moderate compared to Ethereum and Solana, Bitcoin’s futures market continues to dominate institutional trading.
However, with high open interest, especially in Solana, and prices still below previous all-time highs, there are cautionary signals about leverage-driven volatility in the near term. Analysts warn that this leverage buildup may amplify volatility, particularly if Bitcoin prices consolidate or dip slightly.
Key factors influencing these trends include growing institutional adoption seeking exposure to diversified crypto assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, regulatory progress, and market technical indicators showing crowded bullish sentiment.
Interestingly, the short-term trendline for Ethereum Futures OI has rebounded, suggesting traders are reopening positions and renewing speculative interest. Conversely, Bitcoin Futures Open Interest is exhibiting a downward speculative trend as of January 9, 2025.
For Solana futures, the 7-day SMA remains above the 30-day SMA and continues to move upward, indicating growing trader positions in anticipation of volatility. The MVRV metric currently stands at 2.14, which is lower than the value of 3 at previous market tops over the last two cycles, suggesting that the current market may not be as overheated as it has been in the past.
Despite these cautionary signs, some analysts are optimistic about the future of the leading cryptocurrencies. For instance, one analyst expects Bitcoin to set a new all-time high in the coming months. However, others like James Check from Glassnode have pointed out a decline in demand for Bitcoin. A CryptoQuant contributor believes Bitcoin's price is still far from its cycle peak, as the MVRV indicator has yet to reach extremely high levels.
In conclusion, the futures markets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are expanding in tandem with institutional engagement and regulatory optimism, but with cautionary signals about leverage-driven volatility in the near term. Traders and investors are advised to exercise caution and make informed decisions based on their own research and risk tolerance.
The significant surge in Solana futures trading volume and open interest on the CME in July 2025 could indicate strong institutional interest in Solana derivatives, potentially due to expectations of regulatory approval. On the other hand, Bitcoin futures, while still dominating institutional trading, have shown more moderate growth compared to Ethereum and Solana. In the latter part of 2025, the open interest in all three cryptocurrencies, particularly Solana, has risen substantially, with analysts warning about leverage-driven volatility in the near term.
