U.S. Solar Surge Meets Policy Crossroads: Texas Boom, Federal Hurdles
The U.S. House of Representatives has recently enacted the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act', a legislation that is set to significantly impact budgets and tax policy related to renewable energy, particularly solar, between 2025 and 2034. Meanwhile, Texas has seen a surge in solar power development, with more than 27% of ERCOT's peak electricity being delivered by solar during high-demand periods.
Texas has added a substantial 3.2 GW of solar in the first half of 2025, with plans to install another 9.7 GW by the end of the year. This growth is expected to continue, with developers planning to install over 21 GW of solar in the second half of 2025, more than double the 12 GW installed in the first six months. If realized, 2025 would be the largest annual solar build in U.S. history, eclipsing the 2024 record of 30 GW.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects solar to supply 33.3 GW of new electric generating capacity in 2025, more than half of all additions. However, the recent policy changes may impact this growth. Permitting for renewables on federal lands has been centralized under Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, giving him veto authority over solar and wind projects. Industry leaders warn that this policy pivot could erase thousands of jobs and stall billions in private investment. Current measures, such as 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum used in solar equipment, are pushing up project costs and clouding investment decisions for prospective U.S. manufacturers.
The 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' ends the 30% residential solar tax credit on December 31, 2025, and accelerates the phase-down of commercial incentives. With electricity costs up an estimated 34% from 2021 to 2025, and data centers poised to drive unprecedented load growth, the future of solar energy in the U.S. remains uncertain amidst these policy changes.
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