Space Force Expansion in Air Force 2050: Predicted Growth by Kendall, Including Larger SpaceForce Presence and Increased Standoff Strike Capabilities
Updated: January 14, 2023
By 2050, Expect a More Powerful, Autonomous Air Force and Space Force, Says Frank Kendall
In an informal, off-the-cuff discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) just days before leaving office, Secretary Frank Kendall outlined a larger, more autonomous, and potentially transformative future for the Department of the Air Force and Space Force.
Piggybacking on a report mandated by Congress in late 2023, Kendall's address, completed and presented in December but not publicized until now, offers a broad strokes view of the direction the department should take while addressing the challenges it will face along the way.
Notably, the report doesn't set specific aircraft quantities, readiness goals, or many other specifics, according to Kendall. "It's almost impossible to do with any kind of accuracy," he said, "given the many variables in politics, technology, international alliances, and strategic shifts that may lie ahead."
The Great Expansion of the Space Force
Kendall envisions a "much bigger, much more capable, much more powerful" Space Force in 2050, three to four times its current size of roughly 9,400 uniformed personnel. The USAF and USSF, he said, will undergo a strategic transformation.
Similar to the analogy used by Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, Kendall sees the Space Force transitioning from a merchant marine to a Navy, capable of projecting power in contested domains.
Drone Swarms and Autonomous Capabilities
Kendall foresees a future where heavily automated and autonomous capabilities will be crucial for space situational awareness, targeting, and missile warning and tracking. Communications will heavily leverage commercial partners, while the need for resilient position, navigation, and timing (PNT) systems will be paramount.
The USAF will depend heavily on drone swarms and autonomous aircraft, even as it continues to make room for crewed aircraft and human-controlled drones for reliable communication and command and control.
The Era of Counter-Space Capabilities
Developing and maturing counter-space capabilities will require significant investment, Kendall said. Space will become increasingly contested, necessitating a more defensive stance and the ability to protect satellites and other assets in orbit.
Continued Threats from China and Russia
Kendall cited "China, China, China" as a persistent problem and a significant threat to U.S. interests and security in the coming decades. Russia is also not going away as a serious threat, he said.
An Emphasis on Long-Range Strike Capabilities
Kendall anticipates a shift towards emphasizing the long-range strike of bombers, as the Air Force may be overly dependent on relatively short-range aircraft and has a relatively small inventory of longer-range strike platforms. He also hinted at the possibility of introducing new platforms to the mix by the middle of the century.
Projecting Power in Contested Airspace
Operating in contested airspace and maintaining a forward presence with allies will always be necessary, according to Kendall. "We're going to continue our system of alliances around the world, and we need to be there with our partners and our allies," he said. "So there have to be aircraft that can operate from those kinds of environments, be survivable, and deliver the effects that we need forward with our partners."
Rethinking Aerial Mobility and Vulnerability
The increasing vulnerability of aerial tankers, particularly against long-range counter-air systems, demands attention, Kendall said. "We have got to address that survivability issue," he emphasized. "It's one of the reasons that missions like intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and command, control, and communications are shifting to space."
The Next-GenerationAir Refueling System
Stealth is a significant consideration for the Next-Generation Air Refueling System, but no final decision has been made on this feature. The Trump administration will have to weigh the need for survivability in light of emerging air defense threats.
Budgetary Challenges
Kendall warned of budgetary constraints and resistance to retiring obsolete platforms and embracing new technologies, as it can negatively impact the department's ability to adapt and remain competitive. Continuing to buy already-obsolete systems, such as the C-130, must be abandoned, Kendall argued.
"We are no longer in an era where we can buy a platform, wait for it to wear out, and then replace it," he said. "We've got to buy things to stay competitive over time, and that's going to be a fundamental change in how we resource and plan for the future."
Insights:
- The B-52J variant is expected to receive upgrades, succeeding in keeping the platform relevant until 2050 and beyond.
- Cost overruns and delays in modernization programs have led to discussions about scaling back features to control costs.
- The Air Force is committed to strategic nuclear modernization, with the LRSO missile and the Sentinel ICBM modernization being top priorities.
- Maintaining mission-capable rates among legacy bombers remains a challenge, despite the upgrade efforts.
- The evolving threat environment requires continuous improvement in stealth, range, and survivability for U.S. nuclear and conventional strike capabilities.
- Secretary Frank Kendall's vision includes the B-52J variant receiving upgrades, ensuring its relevance until 2050 and beyond.
- Cost overruns and delays in modernization programs have necessitated discussions about scaling back features to control costs.
- The Air Force prioritizes strategic nuclear modernization, with the Long-Range Standoff (LRSO) missile and the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) modernization at the forefront.
- Maintaining mission-capable rates among legacy bombers remains a challenge, despite upgrade efforts, as they struggle to keep pace with technological advancements.
- The evolving threat environment necessitates continuous improvement in stealth, range, and survivability for US nuclear and conventional strike capabilities.
- To counter threats from China and Russia, Kendall emphasizes the need for stronger counter-space capabilities, ensuring the protection of satellites and other assets in orbit.
- The Space Force's expansion will see its size triple or quadruple, enabling it to project power in contested domains similar to a navy, according to Kendall.
- In the future, drone swarms and autonomous aircraft will play a crucial role in providing space situational awareness, targeting, and missile warning and tracking, according to Kendall.
- The Next-Generation Air Refueling System will consider stealth to enhance survivability, but a final decision on this feature has yet to be made, as the Trump administration weighs the need for survivability in light of emerging air defense threats.
