Polymarket Recognizes the Necessity of an Innovative Wager Type to Account for Trump's Mischiefs
As the election nears, digital betting platform Polymarket has launched new betting pools to cater to its audience of avid gamblers. Soon, we'll discover the U.S. presidential election winner, and all the Polymarket bets will be settled. Despite the impending outcome, there's always something new to bet on, leading Polymarket to introduce bets focused on the inauguration rather than the presidency itself.
The current political climate has blown up gambling markets' popularity. Several platforms have been operating for years, but the uncertainty and turmoil surrounding the 2024 presidential election have propelled them to unprecedented heights. Among these platforms, Polymarket has garnered the most attention.
Polymarket, termed as the "future of news," is a crypto-based platform that takes bets on events with binary outcomes. You can purchase shares of who will win the presidential election for a modest price, and collect the difference if your pick emerges victorious.
The platform determines when to close a particular market by waiting for a unanimous call from AP, Fox, and NBC, proclaiming the same candidate as the winner. In an improbable scenario where they don't, the market will continue until the inauguration, with the winner being whoever gets sworn in.
Following Fortune's lead, it's been observed that Polymarket users are now placing bets on the possibility that the election winner may not end up being inaugurated. Two new markets are available on Polymarket with a closure date of January 20, 2025. The first, "US Inauguration on January 20?", resolves if the person elected in 2024 is indeed sworn in as president. The market has generated around $60,000 in volume so far.
The second, more popular market, poses the same question, "Who will be inaugurated as President?", is witnessing over $4 million in volume, and the contest is between Trump and Harris. Currently, Trump is the favorite with 61% of the bets, while Harris has 37%.
Despite its silly nature, people are betting on this issue due to the widespread American anxiety towards the election. With its tedious, grueling, and taxing process, many people have been eager to put an end to the election cycle since November 5. With Trump's dominance, Biden's faltering performances, and Harris' rise, the excitement is at its peak, and people are willing to wager on every possibility.
However, many believe that the election isn't going to end today. Ballots may be recounted, and the results may linger for days or even months. Trump, being a constant challenger, has already hinted at contesting the election results. Therefore, the official end of the election won't come until the results are certified and the winner takes their oath of office on January 20, 2025.
Polymarket is perceiving this situation and letting users bet on what might transpire. Even if you have previously bet on Harris winning the popular vote or sweeping the election, you can still gamble on Trump's inauguration.
Polymarket's odds had remained evenly balanced after Harris entered the race. However, massive trades pushed the odds in Trump's favor after October began. The reasons? Wash trading and whales. The Wall Street Journal identified four significant tippers who manipulated Polymarket's odds in favor of Trump.
One of the biggest gamblers reportedly from France, claimed to have no political agenda, had bet over $30 million on Trump's election victory. If Trump wins, he stands to gain a staggering $80 million. If he loses, all his money is at stake.
The surge in political betting platforms can be attributed to the technology of the future, as platforms like Polymarket utilize cryptocurrency and advanced algorithms to facilitate betting on events with binary outcomes. With the 2024 presidential election approaching, tech-savvy gamblers are fully immersed in this new form of tech-driven entertainment, placing bets on various possible outcomes.
