Online retail market in Russia predicted to expand approximately 30% by the year 2025.
Russia's E-commerce Market Continues to Grow, Albeit Slower in 2025
The Russian e-commerce market is expected to experience steady growth in 2025, although at a slower pace compared to previous years. According to forecasts, the market is projected to grow by approximately 21% in the number of orders and about 24–25% in monetary terms for purchases on marketplaces [1].
Multi-category marketplaces, such as Wildberries and Ozon, are expected to maintain their dominance, driving much of the market expansion. These marketplaces are particularly beneficial for e-commerce growth in smaller towns and remote regions, where physical retail infrastructure is limited. The opening of pickup points in small settlements has enabled wider access to online retail, fostering growth in these new markets [1].
Independent online retailers, however, are facing tougher competition and more challenging conditions. To thrive amid marketplace dominance, they will need to employ innovative survival strategies [1]. Digital retail channels are gaining ground, capturing more than 18% of retail transactions, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), apparel, electronics, and home & garden products [2].
Online consumer spending grew significantly in early 2025, with a 36% year-over-year increase in online trade volume reported for the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 5.3 trillion rubles. The food segment in independent online retail is a significant driver of growth, as marketplaces are not as widely represented [3].
The forecast envisions ongoing e-commerce growth fueled by the shift from offline to online purchases, marketplace expansion into new regions, and increased adoption of cashless payment methods such as QR codes and e-wallets, which saw a 33% rise in transaction volume in Q1 2025 [2][3]. However, price competition is expected to level off due to government regulatory actions on gray imports and seller quality on platforms [3].
In summary, the Russian e-commerce sector is expected to experience steady, if slower, expansion with marketplaces leading growth and ongoing regional penetration. The food segment in independent online retail is a significant driver of growth, while digital retail channels capture a growing share of retail sales [2]. The Russian Shopping Centers Union (STC) predicts significant losses for certain networks, particularly in the clothing and footwear retail sector and DIY stores [4]. Retailers' and niche online platforms' sales are expected to increase by 19.6% to 4.46 trillion rubles by the end of 2025 [5].
Regulation of the platform economy is set to begin in the fall of 2026 [6].
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The growth in the Russian e-commerce market in 2025, though slower compared to previous years, is expected to be driven mainly by marketplaces like Wildberries and Ozon, especially in smaller towns and remote regions where physical retail infrastructure is limited. To stay competitive, independent online retailers will need to implement innovative survival strategies, as digital retail channels gain more prominence in various sectors such as FMCG, apparel, electronics, and home & garden products.
