Kettera Strategies' November 2024 Analysis: Visual representation of strategic positions and trends across various sectors
In the ever-evolving financial landscape of 2025, the performance of various trading strategies and specialists has shown notable divergence, influenced by market conditions such as volatility, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty.
**Systematic Trend Programs**
In 2022, a majority of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) programs delivered positive returns between 11% and 40%, demonstrating trend following's effectiveness in certain environments. However, 2024 and early 2025 have been more challenging, with periods of losses reflecting the cyclical nature of trend following. As the TTU Trend Barometer improved to 50% by mid-2025, suggesting a tentative return of favorable trends, these programs may see a potential rebound phase if directional markets persist.
**Discretionary Global Macro Managers**
While specific performance data for discretionary global macro managers is not available, their success in 2025 appears tied to strategic agility and flexibility, adapting to macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical risks, which have been significant due to conflicts like the Ukraine war and broader economic uncertainty.
**Volatility/Options Specialists**
Volatility traders have likely benefited from 2025's heightened geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. Elevated volatility provides profitable opportunities but requires dynamic risk management.
**Commodities Specialists (Agricultural Specialists)**
Commodity markets have faced pressure from margin call spikes and tighter position limits induced by geopolitical events, notably the Ukraine conflict. Innovative asset-backed trade finance models, such as those employed by TradeFlow Capital Management, provide liquidity and risk mitigation by owning physical commodities during shipment, offering attractive low-correlation returns and investment-grade risk profiles.
**FX Programs**
FX trading is often influenced by macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank policies. Given the current environment of turbulence noted in other asset classes, FX programs likely face both opportunities and risks due to increased directional moves and volatility.
In conclusion, the performance of these strategies in 2025 reflects the interplay of market structure, geopolitical tensions, and liquidity constraints. Systematic trend programs face cyclical phases but show signs of recovery. Discretionary macro and volatility specialists benefit from strategic agility amid chaos, while commodities specialists contend with elevated costs and liquidity challenges. FX programs remain sensitive to macro trends and geopolitical developments, requiring nimble execution.
Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors and managers to navigate the evolving financial landscape effectively. The Heat Map performance indicators are based on monthly returns (net of fees) of programs on or for the Hydra Platform. The Kettera Strategies Heat Map does not represent investible products or index products.
References: 1. [1] Hedge Funds Review. (2025). The Evolution of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). Retrieved from https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/news/the-evolution-of-commodity-trading-advisors-ctas/ 2. [2] The Economist. (2025). The Commodity Conundrum: Navigating Market Pressures. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/business/2025/06/05/the-commodity-conundrum-navigating-market-pressures 3. [3] AlphaWeek. (2025). The TTU Trend Barometer: A Guide for Trend Followers. Retrieved from https://www.alphaweek.com/news/the-ttu-trend-barometer-a-guide-for-trend-followers/ 4. [4] TradeFlow Capital Management. (2025). Asset-Backed Trade Finance: A Solution for Commodity Market Challenges. Retrieved from https://www.tradeflowcm.com/solutions/asset-backed-trade-finance/ 5. [5] Financial Times. (2025). The Agile Global Macro Manager: Adapting to Volatility and Risk. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/5d2d6d1c-8708-4e38-974d-9780d2b1403b
- As the TTU Trend Barometer improved to 50% by mid-2025, suggesting a tentative return of favorable trends, Systematic Trend Programs, such as those employed by CTAs, may potentially benefit from a rebound phase if directional markets persist.
- In the ever-evolving financial landscape of 2025, the success of Discretionary Global Macro Managers, who are known for adapting to macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical risks, appears to be tied to their strategic agility and flexibility, as was evident during the Ukraine war and broader economic uncertainty.
