ID Tech from Publicis Clashes with WPP's Federated Learning Approach
Transforming Strategies in Digital Marketing: ID-Based vs Probabilistic Approaches
Switching Gears
Publicis Groupe's CEO, Arthur Sadoun, recently confided in analysts that Publicis and WPP are now embarking on different paths. While Publicis is doubling down on tech that pinpoints consumers on the internet at an individual level, WPP is exploring federated learning technology, which tackles people statistically, without the need for user-level data.
Sadoun is firm in his belief that Publicis' strategy is spot on, asserting, 'leading in identity provides us with a unique competitive edge in new business, as well as client retention.' However, the question remains: Do advertisers need to know people's identity to market effectively, or is understanding behavior and context sufficient?
Viewpoints from industry veterans
Chris Camacho - CEO at Cheil UK
Camacho believes both strategies have merit, but probabilistic, federated learning feels like the wiser choice for the future. Publicis' investment in ID tech is understandable as it addresses concerns about cookie deprecation and increasingly stringent data regulations. Yet, it still relies on the challenging task of resolving identity at the individual level. WPP's shift towards probabilistic, federated models feels bolder and more forward-thinking, aligning with the inevitable shifting landscape of digital marketing that values scale, privacy, and compliance.
Claire Elsworth - strategy director at Impression Digital
Elsworth argues that viewing this as a tech race misses the point. Instead, she believes that agencies should focus on delivering consistent, sustainable growth for their clients. Both ID-based and probabilistic approaches have their strengths and weaknesses. ID-based may be an easier sell initially, but it could be brittle in an ever-changing world with fluctuating regulations across markets. The real question lies in crafting strategies that balance precision gains with long-term, resilient business growth.
Chris Andrews - head of marketing technology at Wake The Bear
Andrews notes that both Publicis and WPP have made solid investments with Lotame and Infosum, respectively. However, he contends that buying tech from major agencies has a history of creating one-size-fits-all solutions for advertisers, disguised as proprietary technology. The smart move, according to Andrews, would be prioritizing clean room tech as the stronger, long-term option.
Niki Chana - programmatic strategy director at SBS
Chana asserts that the conversation goes beyond just technology; it's about building long-term resilience in the industry. Publicis' ID-based approach still delivers results, but it's a short-term solution, much like building a house on sand, vulnerable to shifting regulations, privacy concerns, and platform restrictions. WPP's tilt towards probabilistic methods reflects an acceptance of the changing landscape. It's not about pigeonholing someone specifically, but about understanding their behaviors, interests, and the optimal moments to connect.
Elja Polak - chief growth hero at SuperHeroes Amsterdam
Polak challenges the networks for missing the real shift by chasing data instead of creativity. Publicis is investing in ID tech, while WPP focuses on prediction engines. Both are playing catch-up with platforms like Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, which already enjoy direct, scaled audience relationships. The future belongs to ideas that are worth sharing, not precision targeting of forgettable content.
John Clarvis - data and insight director at The Kite Factory
While both methods are logical solutions, Clarvis prefers probabilistic approaches. Despite their potential, ID tech solutions still face challenges regarding accuracy within legal constraints. Probabilistic approaches, on the other hand, offer exciting potential for delivering smart, business-savvy work by targeting users without invading their privacy. However, convincing clients accustomed to hard numbers about its accuracy can be challenging.
Mattia Fosci - founder and CEO at Anonymised
Fosci criticizes Publicis for prioritizing short-term revenue uplifts over long-term investments, suggesting that buying Lotame is more of an attempt to fix Epsilon than a long-term strategic move. Fosci views WPP's privacy-focused federated learning as a long-term play, but warns that it may be surpassed by a more substantial restructuring of the ecosystem driven by AI and large language models.
Featured image: Mauro Mora / Unsplash
Additional Details
Identity-Based Approach (Deterministic)
- Involves directly linking data to specific individuals or devices, often using identifiers like cookies or email addresses.
- Offers precise targeting and personalized marketing based on known behaviors and preferences.
- Pros: Precision, control, and consistency.
- Cons: Data limitations, scalability, and data privacy concerns.
Probabilistic Approach
- Uses statistical models to infer user behaviors and preferences based on patterns in data.
- Offers scalability, flexibility, and real-time data analysis capabilities.
- Pros: Scalability, adaptability, and innovation.
- Cons: Uncertainty, dependency on data quality, and potential inconsistencies in messaging.
- Arthur Sadoun, CEO of Publicis Groupe, asserts that Publicis' focus on technology that pinpoints consumers at an individual level provides a unique competitive edge in new business and client retention, while WPP explores federated learning technology that tackles people statistically.
- Chris Camacho, CEO at Cheil UK, argues that the shift towards probabilistic, federated learning technology resonates with the evolving landscape of digital marketing, valuing scale, privacy, and compliance over ID-based approaches.
- John Clarvis, data and insight director at The Kite Factory, prefers probabilistic approaches for delivering smart, business-savvy work by targeting users without invading their privacy, even if it might be challenging to convince clients accustomed to hard numbers about its accuracy.
- Elja Polak, chief growth hero at SuperHeroes Amsterdam, challenges the networks for missing the real shift by chasing data instead of creativity, highlighting the importance of ideas that are worth sharing in the future of digital marketing.
