Grains market concludes with mixed results on Tuesday, with spring wheat experiencing a recovery
In the world of agricultural commodities, the wheat market has seen a series of developments over the past week. Here's a breakdown of the key points:
- The Russian wheat crop is estimated by IKAR to be 84.5 MMT, an increase of 0.5 MMT from the previous projection. This positive outlook suggests a potentially larger supply of wheat from Russia.
- In the US, the wheat production total is estimated to be 1.922 billion bushels, according to Tuesday's Crop Production report. This figure represents a decrease of 7 mbu from last month's estimate.
- The wheat complex experienced mixed results on Friday. Winter wheat slipped back, while spring wheat showed strength. Specifically, MPLS spring wheat gained 2 to 3 cents, with September spring wheat up 4 1⁄2 cents this week.
- On the futures market, CBT futures were 3 to 4 cents in the red on the day, with September down 2 1⁄4 cents. KC HRW futures also saw losses, with most contracts down 3 to 4 1/2 cents. September KC HRW futures, however, only declined by 1/2 cent this week.
- KCBT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents, and CBOT Wheat ended at $5.14 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents. Conversely, MGEX Wheat saw gains, closing at $5.76 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.
- As of August 5, 2025, speculative funds held a net short position of approximately 80,769 contracts in CBOT wheat futures and options, increasing their net short position by about 15,445 contracts compared to previous weeks. A similar net short position figure of around 80,759 contracts was reported for KC wheat.
- The USDA's 2025/26 wheat export book stands at 10.309 MMT, the highest since 2017/18 for this specific week.
- France's wheat crop is estimated to be 33.1 MMT, an increase of 0.5 MMT from last month's estimate.
This information is for informational purposes only. For more details, please refer to our Disclosure Policy. It's important to note that as of the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.
[1] Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5, 2025. [2] Source: Market commentaries summarizing the CFTC report.
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