Gold prices could potentially reach new record highs during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) week, according to weekly forecasts.
Gold prices are on the rise, moving towards the previous all-time high of $3500, with the precious metal testing this level as we speak. The technical outlook suggests near-term resistance around $3420 to $3440, but there is potential for a breakthrough if a sustained dovish policy and economic weakness persist.
In the shorter 15-minute chart, immediate buying levels are at $3334-3326 due to the FVG and range low. On the daily timeframe, a major level for buying gold is starting from $3314-3281, thanks to the daily level support and range low.
The expected impact on gold prices from August 20 to August 22, 2025, is heavily influenced by several key economic events and central bank decisions.
On August 20, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. If the minutes reveal a hawkish Fed stance, with less chance of rate cuts or hints at tightening, gold is likely to face downward pressure. However, if the minutes show dovish signals or economic concerns, gold prices tend to rise as investors seek safe-haven assets.
On August 21, the focus shifts to the Unemployment Claims and PMIs. Rising unemployment claims would suggest labor market weakness, which is bullish for gold. A contractionary manufacturing PMI (below 50) also supports gold by signaling slower growth. However, a strong services PMI could strengthen the US dollar and pressure gold downwards.
On August 22, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will be delivered. Market reaction depends on Powell’s tone. A dovish or recession-concerned speech would likely boost gold prices, while hawkish comments suggesting prolonged higher rates would weigh on gold and support a stronger dollar.
As of August 25, 2025, gold prices have remained resilient near a two-week peak around $3,370 to $3,390 per ounce amid uncertainty over Fed policy and global economic factors. Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole contributed to some price gains, though the FOMC minutes and strong economic data limit expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts in September.
The technical outlook also suggests support near $3,280 to $3,330, with possible upside towards the previous all-time high near $3,500 if a sustained dovish policy and economic weakness persist. Citibank and other analysts forecast potential new record highs driven by tariff concerns, global economic risks, and a weaker dollar.
In summary, the gold price reaction during August 20–22 rests largely on whether Fed signals and economic data lean hawkish or dovish:
| Event | Hawkish Impact on Gold | Dovish Impact on Gold | |--------------------------|--------------------------------|-------------------------------| | FOMC Meeting Minutes | Gold price down | Gold price up | | Unemployment Claims & PMIs| Mixed: strong PMI down, strong USD down gold | Weak labor & PMIs up gold | | Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech| Gold price down | Gold price up |
Current market trends and forecasts favor resilience or moderate gains if Powell’s speech and data point to slower growth and sustained monetary support. Additionally, recent developments such as Trump's pause on tariffs and Goldman Sachs scraping its recession forecast may further support gold prices in the near term.
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