Drop in prospects for XRP ETF approval on Polymarket following SEC's opposition
The approval of a U.S.-based XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) remains on track, despite a recent drop in approval chances, according to industry experts. The SEC has been actively reviewing multiple XRP ETF applications, with decisions expected in October 2025.
Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, assigns a high probability of around 95% to the approval of spot XRP ETFs by Q4 2025. This optimism is driven by regulatory shifts, including new SEC leadership under Paul Atkins, the resolution of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC, and futures trading on regulated exchanges like CME.
However, SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw and other skeptics have expressed opposition to crypto-based ETFs, reflecting ongoing regulatory caution. Despite this, the evolving political landscape and regulatory clarity from the dismissal of Ripple’s lawsuit have substantially improved the approval outlook.
XRP's recent market volatility has been influenced by legal developments and regulatory anticipation, but the approval of futures-based ETFs has bolstered confidence in XRP's legitimacy in regulated U.S. markets.
Looking ahead, experts predict a likely approval of multiple spot XRP ETFs between October and December 2025. This could potentially trigger increased institutional adoption and trading activity. Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, predicts XRP ETFs will trade soon following SEC approval.
Japan's SBI Holdings, a close ally of Ripple, has submitted an application for an ETF containing Bitcoin, XRP, and Gold. If approved, this could further boost the global demand for XRP ETFs.
It's worth noting that Crenshaw, who has been a vocal opponent of crypto-based ETFs, plans to vote against the U.S.-based XRP exchange-traded fund. She cast a "no" vote on a slate of 13 crypto ETF approvals on July 29. However, her dissenting voice is usually outvoted by the other commissioners.
As of press time, the approval rating for the XRP exchange-traded fund is 86%. The current market response to the XRP exchange-traded fund's approval chances is labeled as an overcorrection by Balchunas.
In conclusion, while the SEC's stance remains cautious, regulatory and market conditions favor XRP ETF approvals in the near term. Key dates such as October 18, 2025, for decisions on major ETF filings are significant milestones to watch.
- The optimism around the approval of spot XRP ETFs by Q4 2025, as suggested by Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, is partially driven by the resolution of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC.
- Despite SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw's vocal opposition to crypto-based ETFs, experts predict a likely approval of multiple spot XRP ETFs between October and December 2025, potentially triggering increased institutional adoption and trading activity.
- Notably, Japan's SBI Holdings has submitted an application for an ETF containing Bitcoin, XRP, and Gold. If approved, this could further boost the global demand for XRP ETFs, indicating a potential ripple effect in the finance and technology sectors.
