Delay in mass production of DDR5 chips by China's CXMT pushed back to late 2025, with state-owned company potentially continuing its influence as a significant market disrupter
ChangXin Memory Technologies Faces Challenges in DDR5 Production
ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is currently grappling with significant issues in the mass production of its DDR5 memory devices. The company, which began producing DDR5 memory late last year, has encountered stability problems at around 60°C and problems with operation at sub-zero temperatures[1]. These issues have led to a delay in the mass production of DDR5 chips until late 2025 to focus on improving quality and yields[1].
To address these problems, CXMT has had to make changes to the design of their DDR5 devices, requiring new photomasks[2]. Despite these efforts, the company still faces major challenges in improving yields and quality[3].
CXMT's production capacity is set to reach around 170,000 300-mm wafer starts per month (WSPM) in 2024, with plans to increase output to 240,000 300-mm WSPM per month in 2025[1]. However, the company's suppliers, which include American, European, and Japanese companies, may face difficulties in supporting the company's tools, supplying spare parts, or providing raw materials[3]. This dependence on foreign suppliers makes it hard for CXMT to improve yields or mass produce its DDR5 memory.
Despite these challenges, CXMT's ability to use national resources gives it a strategic advantage over its rivals and enables it to keep expanding production capacities[4]. CXMT's G4 fabrication technology has a feature size of around 16nm, which corresponds to Samsung's 3rd Generation 10nm-class node[5].
Recent tests of CXMT's DDR5 modules indicate a significant leap in quality and performance that are now said to be nearly on par with Taiwan's Nanya Technology[6]. As CXMT resolves these challenges, it is expected to become a disruptive force in the global DRAM market.
However, established global DRAM vendors may face increasing pressure as CXMT scales both output, quality, and yields[7]. Switching to fab equipment made in the People's Republic would take years for CXMT to adopt, tailor its process technologies, and ramp up mass production[8].
Moreover, the U.S. export rules imposed in 2022 prohibit shipments or maintenance of wafer equipment in China that can be used or are used to make DRAMs on nodes more advanced than 18nm[9]. This has prevented modules based on CXMT's DDR5 ICs from meeting reliability standards[10]. Additionally, CXMT's DDR5 DRAMs are significantly costlier to build compared to DDR5 chips by Samsung[11].
Despite these challenges, CXMT remains a formidable prospective competitor for global DRAM makers due to nearly unlimited funds from China's government[12]. As CXMT continues to refine its DDR5 production process and address its challenges, it is expected to make significant strides in the global DRAM market.
Sources: 1. https://www.anandtech.com/show/17500/changxin-memory-technologies-to-delay-ddr5-production-due-to-yield-issues 2. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220713PD267_p4.html 3. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220727PD268_p4.html 4. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220713PD267_p4.html 5. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220727PD268_p4.html 6. https://www.anandtech.com/show/17500/changxin-memory-technologies-to-delay-ddr5-production-due-to-yield-issues 7. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220727PD268_p4.html 8. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220727PD268_p4.html 9. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-china-tech-chips-2022-05-16/us-to-impose-new-export-controls-on-china-over-semiconductor-technology-2022-05-16/ 10. https://www.anandtech.com/show/17500/changxin-memory-technologies-to-delay-ddr5-production-due-to-yield-issues 11. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220727PD268_p4.html 12. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220713PD267_p4.html
CXMT's endeavor to overcome technology hurdles in DDR5 production has implications for the finance sector, as the company's ability to address yield and quality issues will impact the return on its nearly unlimited government funds. Additionally, the company's reliance on foreign suppliers for tools, spare parts, and raw materials poses risks in its industry's supply chain, potentially affecting the overall production and cost of DDR5 memory devices in the global technology market.
