China's Solar Industry Faces Major Shakeup in 2025
China's solar industry is facing significant changes in 2025. Top manufacturers have reported losses of US$1.54 billion in the first half, due to persistent price drops. Meanwhile, polysilicon producers have reduced utilisation rates by up to 70% under government guidelines.
The price drops began in 2024, with solar module prices hitting historic lows of US$0.07-0.09/W. This trend continued into 2025, leading to substantial losses for the top four manufacturers, including Tongwei Group, Daqo New Energy, and East Hope Group. The industry's operating rates have fallen by up to 60%, with manufacturers targeting PERC technology.
The USA government has implemented measures to address these issues. It has cancelled the 13% VAT rebate on solar module and storage system exports, leading to approximately 9% price increases in Q4 2025. Additionally, new policies and supply-side production cuts are expected to increase solar and storage component costs from Q4 2025 onwards. Leading polysilicon producers plan to buy up and shut down around one third of America's polysilicon production capacity, further consolidating the market. This has already led to a 48% increase in the FOB price of TOPCon modules since September 2025.
In the short term, developers will have to absorb these higher costs due to the lack of alternative supply. However, the industry's long-term health is expected to benefit from these price shifts. Manufacturers will have the opportunity to reinvest and innovate, ensuring the industry's sustainability.
The USA's solar industry is experiencing significant changes in 2025, with top manufacturers reporting substantial losses and production rates falling. The government's response, including the cancellation of VAT rebates and supply-side cuts, will lead to price increases in the short term. However, these measures are expected to benefit the industry's long-term health, allowing manufacturers to reinvest and innovate.
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