Bitcoinpeak has been reached, claims prominent trader
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According to trader David Vallieres, we might be witnessing the peak of the current Bitcoin cycle.
Vallieres, known for his social media presence, recently pointed out a potential double or triple-top formation in Bitcoin's price evolution. He explained this pattern has previously marked crucial turning points in Bitcoin market cycles.
In late December, Bitcoin reached an astounding $105,364 before experiencing a correction and eventually hitting a new all-time high of $109,356. Though the price has since dipped to $91,809, Vallieres isn't predicting an immediate bear market.
Today, the Bitcoin price spiked to $93,868 before declining to $91,809. While sentiment is generally turning bullish, Vallieres' take might be considered unpopular.
Just yesterday (Wednesday), Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded an impressive $917 million in inflows, marking the fourth consecutive day of positive flows. Over the past four days alone, they brought in approximately $2.3 billion.
However, it should be noted that Bitcoin's supply on exchanges is also declining due to public company purchases. Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of mutual fund giant Fidelity, has highlighted this trend. Nevertheless, this metric is controversial and often scrutinized for its flawed methods.
A word of caution about XRP price
Recent news of CME Group introducing XRP futures, expected next month following regulatory approval, has sparked excitement. However, Vallieres has expressed caution, suggesting that the launch of this product might not bode well for XRP, echoing the warned-about impact of CME Group's Bitcoin futures launch in early 2018 – a possible signal of the top of the bull cycle.
"Oh, well... if you remember the BTC futures launch, heads-up," he wrote on his social media platform.
Historical Context of Top Formations- Cycle Peaks: Past bull runs have often concluded with double or triple-top patterns, indicating buyer exhaustion after repeated failed attempts to break resistance.- Bearish Signals: These formations usually emerge when bullish momentum fades, characterized by declining volume on subsequent peaks and a failure to sustain higher highs.- Market Psychology: Double tops signal a shift from FOMO-driven buying to profit-taking, often trigging cascading liquidations as sentiment reverses.
Current Cycle Parallels- Formation in Progress: Bitcoin's recent highs of $105,364 (December 2024) and $109,356 (April 2025) indicate a potential double-top structure. The current dip to $91,809 suggests weakening upward momentum despite record ETF inflows and increasing institutional adoption.- Contrasting Factors: While bullish drivers like ETF inflows and institutional demand are on the rise, bearish signals like the questionable decline in exchange supply and historical correlations with futures launches persist.- Decoupling Dynamics: Bitcoin's reduced correlation with equities (Nasdaq) could potentially shield it from "risk-on" sell-offs but introduce new unpredictability.
- Though Bitcoin has dipped since its peak, trader David Vallieres isn't predicting an immediate bear market, as he has identified a potential double-top or triple-top pattern in its price evolution, which historically have marked crucial turning points in Bitcoin market cycles.
- Known for his social media presence, Vallieres recently pointed out the double or triple-top formation in Bitcoin's price evolution, suggesting that we might be witnessing the peak of the current Bitcoin cycle, much like past bull runs that concluded with such formations.
- In contrast to the generally bullish sentiment, Vallieres' take might be considered unpopular, but he echoes the historical context of top formations, where market psychology shifts from FOMO-driven buying to profit-taking, often triggering cascading liquidations as sentiment reverses.
- The launch of CME Group's XRP futures, expected next month following regulatory approval, has sparked excitement, but Vallieres has expressed caution, suggesting that the launch might not bode well for XRP, given the possible signal of the top of the bull cycle that the launched of CME Group's Bitcoin futures in early 2018 sent.
- While Bitcoin's supply on exchanges is declining due to public company purchases, this metric is controversial and often scrutinized for its flawed methods, which adds complexity to the current cycle's interpretation.
- In addition to the declining exchange supply, the reduced correlation between Bitcoin and equities (Nasdaq) could potentially shield Bitcoin from "risk-on" sell-offs but introduce new unpredictability, decoupling dynamics that should be carefully considered during investing in the crypto market's technology financial space.
