Analysis of Bitcoin Price: Failing to Rise Above Certain Points May Lead to a Correction Below $100,000 Mark
Bitcoin has taken a breather after touching the $111K zone, following a powerful rally over the past few weeks. Yet, the broader picture remains positive. This analysis dives deep into Bitcoin's price action, technical aspects, and on-chain data to provide insights on what's happening and what might be next.
Technical Analysis
The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, BTC is hanging tough above the $103K region, having swept the $101K sell-side liquidity. The bullish framework remains intact, with the price eyeing the mid-range of the ascending channel. The 100-day (orange) and 200-day (blue) moving averages are not far off, sitting at $92K and $95K respectively, and their upward slopes hint at undamaged long-term bullish momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily is recovering slightly from below 50, suggesting a recovering momentum after days of cooling down. As long as BTC stays above the $100K-$101K range, this pullback appears to be a healthy correction in an uptrend. However, if BTC fails to regain the $106K-$108K resistance area quickly, the probabilities for revisiting the $95K-$97K order block, and even the moving averages, could increase.
The 4-Hour Chart
Zooming in on the 4H chart, BTC dipped below the descending wedge pattern after finding decent demand near the $100K level and started a V-shaped recovery. This structure typically signals a bullish reversal, and the subsequent break above $103K supports this view. However, the current rally is nearing resistance again, with the higher boundary of the pattern looming near the $105K mark, and the RSI still under 50. This level might act as a temporary ceiling unless momentum strengthens further.
The substantial wick below $100K looks like a textbook liquidity grab, suggesting market makers triggered stops before propelling the price higher. If buyers can hold above the $100K base and flip the $105K-$106K area, the path opens for a push towards $108K and potentially a new all-time high above $112K. Conversely, a failure to do so might result in more sideways action between $101K and $106K in the coming days.
On-Chain Analysis
Exchange Reserve
The Exchange Reserve chart sheds light on a significant trend: the amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges is plummeting, now hitting an all-time low of 2.3 million BTC. This steep decline over the past year, including June 2025, despite BTC trading above $100K, suggests strong demand and decreased selling pressure as investors hoard their Bitcoin.
This behavior indicates a powerful macroeconomic current. Institutional accumulation drives a significant portion of this trend, as large entities move coins off exchanges to custody solutions for long-term holding or risk mitigation. Additionally, the rising presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and custodial platforms (like Fidelity or BlackRock) diverts Bitcoin away from exchanges, removing it from the circulating supply indefinitely. This dynamic creates structural illiquidity that underpins Bitcoin's asymmetric upside.
Summary
Bitcoin's recent correction after tagging the $111K region hints at a potential accumulation phase near support. Technical analysis, on-chain data, and macroeconomic trends all support the notion that the long-term bullish momentum is intact. As always, traders should maintain a cautious yet optimistic approach, keeping a close eye on key resistance levels and market developments to navigate potential price swings.
- The current price action of Bitcoin suggests a recovering momentum after days of cooling down, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart.
- In the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) and technology, the decline in Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges, now at an all-time low of 2.3 million BTC, indicates strong demand and decreased selling pressure from investors.
- On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin's V-shaped recovery after dipping below the descending wedge pattern and the subsequent break above $103K supports a bullish reversal.
- As Bitcoin trading continues, it's essential for investors to maintain a cautious yet optimistic approach, keeping a close eye on key resistance levels and market developments to navigate potential price swings in the crypto market.
