AI and Universal Basic Income: an Inevitable Link?

If I told you that AI would render humans jobless on a large scale and lead to widespread unemployment, you'd likely view this as a negative development, right?

But consider the possibility that AI might reduce the need for work altogether, enabling us to live comfortably without the necessity of employment. This is the idea behind the concept of universal basic income ( UBI ) being driven by AI.

This notion can be broken down as follows: AI is currently proficient at tasks like coding, drafting legal documents, driving vehicles, and even medical diagnosis. So, one can only imagine what it will be capable of in 20, 30, or even 50 years from now. Advocates argue that AI would not only necessitate some form of UBI but also have the technological advancement to make it possible. However, the validity of this argument is debatable, or is it just a notion that is highly optimistic?

What is Universal Basic Income?

UBI refers to recurring, unconditional payments granted to citizens to cover or contribute to their basic living expenses. The idea came into play during the first Industrial Revolution, fueled by concerns that industrialization would result in high-scale human unemployment and social unrest.

Although this didn't turn out to be the case, many countries still implemented social welfare programs to assist low-income or unemployed individuals. This was to reduce extreme poverty and the problems associated with it.

UBI differs from welfare in that it's accessible to all individuals, regardless of their financial status, employment, or income. Supporters claim that providing a basic lifestyle for everybody would have a positive impact on various issues, such as poor health, crime, and homelessness. Skeptics, however, fear that this could lessen the incentive to work and lead to a decline in enterprise and productivity.

Experiments with UBI in the United States date back to the 1960s, and more recently, limited trials have been conducted in countries such as Finland and Canada.

Now, the emergence of AI has again stirred fears of technology-induced redundancy and unemployment on a massive scale. However, it has also been proposed that AI will help construct the infrastructure required for a "post-work" society and manage the intricate financial infrastructure needed to make it practical and fair.

Is AI the Solution?

First of all, let's acknowledge that this is a rather utopian perspective. To believe it could work, we would have to assume that many of the challenges currently associated with AI — such as hallucination, model collapse, and sustainability problems — will be resolved, which is far from a certainty. But let's imagine these problems are resolved for the sake of argument.

In this hypothetical future, AI is transforming economies and automating tasks that were previously only capable of being performed by humans, leading to increased productivity, reduced waste, and streamlined workflows. This means more value is produced with less effort, resulting in an excess of value.

This surplus value, as per the theory, can then be reinvested into social programs like UBI. Consider, for example, a world where trains are self-driven. Currently, a large portion of the money invested in train companies is directed towards paying drivers. Moreover, they are required to build comfortable cabins for human passengers, implement safety measures, and provide amenities.

By eliminating such expenses, train companies become more profitable and, in a future where UBI is a reality, contribute towards providing the now obsolete driver ( and everyone else ) with a basic living standard.

However, AI's potential in making UBI a possibility ( and indeed necessary ) goes far beyond this. It could also contribute significantly to UBI's administration. Large-scale social programs typically require an extensive administrative framework and rigorous oversight to ensure fairness, avoid infringing on human rights and privacy, and prevent fraud or corruption. Traditionally, this involves introducing expensive and often inefficient layers of human bureaucracy.

AI, however, could automate many of these tasks. For instance, it could verify eligibility, route payments to the appropriate recipients, and detect fraud, reducing the requirement for labor-intensive administration and oversight.

Reality or Hype?

In theory and under ideal conditions, it appears that AI could make UBI both necessary and possible. But in reality, there are uncertainties. For instance, it's uncertain as to how widespread AI-induced unemployment and redundancy will be. Many — including the WEF — predict that although it will result in the replacement of humans in many roles, new opportunities for us will also emerge.

Furthermore, there will be political challenges to overcome. Some criticize the "no work for pay" philosophy behind UBI since they are concerned that it will harm economic productivity and lessen the motivation to work. It's uncertain whether the political will to implement such changes would exist even if technology makes it feasible.

Lastly, there's the question of whether AI will ever be advanced enough to meet the expectations placed on it. Will issues like hallucination and model breakdown be resolved, and will society ultimately trust it enough to delegate significant control of our industrial and economic activities?

In conclusion, while the dream of humanity being liberated from the burden of labor and given the freedom to pursue a life of leisure and creativity is intriguing, the journey to this utopian state is far from guaranteed.

Yet, it's not entirely far-fetched to imagine, and should we conquer the technical, social, and governmental obstacles, AI has the potential to revolutionize our world, making prosperity and poverty a relic of the past.

(Paraphrased text from the original)

In this context, advocates suggest that the advanced capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) in the future could potentially necessitate the implementation of universal basic income (UBI), providing a basic living standard for everyone due to automation leading to reduced work demands. Furthermore, AI could also streamline the administration of UBI by automating tasks such as verifying eligibility and detecting fraud, reducing the need for human bureaucracy.

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